Uncertainty is bad for economic markets- they like stability. As I said awhile back, I expect things to be whacky until second quarter 2022. Right now there is still cheap money to be had. Taxation thats coming, supply chain issues, and labor will all still be an issue the first quarter. I have read lots of articles that state they think it will be late 2022 before it hits, but I expect uncertainty the first half of years which can take us either direction.
Would love to have your thoughts. I am a long term planner and generally been right in my lifetime, but this last two years has been unpredictable and that leads the next few to be even more unpredictable.
I am in Commerical construction and work with all the big chain stores. We are bidding 100+ jobs per month like we did in 2018/2019, so if I was blind I would say we are in for a big year. I know interest rates are going up for sure. I know that the stores we are in contract for now we can not get the material and they can not get their trademarked fixtures/signs, which means they can not open. Many of the projects we have on the books got pushed to first quarter because of that reason. Every vendor we have has major price increases scheduled for January.
I know I sold my 3 year old Chevy 2500 with 30K miles on it to a dealership for $61K, which is more then I paid for it. I know its cheaper to have a car built then to buy one at the dealership. I know money is still very cheap. I know my banker is dying to loan me money for anything because they are too cash heavy right now. It is a bizarre world we live in right now...
|