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Old    Alex Yermolenko (alexair)      Join Date: Oct 2008       12-10-2014, 5:09 AM Reply   
What is your forecast for fuel prices (average) to April 01?
My is $ 1.75 for regular
Old    Dallas Cowboys Fan Robert T (cwb4me)      Join Date: Apr 2010       12-10-2014, 5:11 AM Reply   
Mine is cloudy with a 50% chance of increase.
Old    Boarder85 (fouroheight68)      Join Date: May 2006       12-10-2014, 7:32 AM Reply   
$3.26
Old    David Christman (lfrider92)      Join Date: Sep 2008       12-10-2014, 9:31 AM Reply   
I was paying $4.50 6 months ago.. paid $2.83 this morning. so happy! i'm sure the trend wont last long though.
Old    Timmy! (timmyb)      Join Date: Apr 2007       12-10-2014, 10:03 AM Reply   
Why is diesel still so expensive? Both my car and truck are diesel and I'm still paying $3.45 a gallon when gas is a full $1 cheaper! Heating oil is trading for $2.04 per gallon and I always thought that diesel and heating oil were tied together.
Old    Nacho (denverd1)      Join Date: May 2004       12-10-2014, 10:14 AM Reply   
yea for a byproduct of gasoline, the diesel guys get ****ed.
2.34 in East texas
Old    Alex Yermolenko (alexair)      Join Date: Oct 2008       12-10-2014, 10:27 AM Reply   
Did you hear anything about this http://ecat.com/ ???
Old    Eric (DenverRider)      Join Date: Feb 2013       12-10-2014, 10:27 AM Reply   
The only thing that truly determines the price at the pump is how much people are willing to pay. Apparently diesel guys are willing to pay more.
Old    Onthe Creek (onthecreek)      Join Date: Apr 2013       12-10-2014, 12:30 PM Reply   
read an article saying it may last until mid year with barrels dropping as low as $50

some speculation that saudi arabia is doing what they can to hurt iran and russia. this supposedly isn't the first time. they claimed the saudi's helped topple the ussr economically in the 80's.

cheapest i've seen in central tx is $2.30 so far
Old    David Langston (rdlangston13)      Join Date: Feb 2011       12-10-2014, 8:13 PM Reply   
Quote:
Originally Posted by onthecreek View Post
read an article saying it may last until mid year with barrels dropping as low as $50



some speculation that saudi arabia is doing what they can to hurt iran and russia. this supposedly isn't the first time. they claimed the saudi's helped topple the ussr economically in the 80's.



cheapest i've seen in central tx is $2.30 so far

Let's just hope it doesn't hurt the domestic suppliers too much at the same time. I know Houston is getting nervous
Old    Dallas Cowboys Fan Robert T (cwb4me)      Join Date: Apr 2010       12-10-2014, 8:18 PM Reply   
Marble Falls Tx. Gas 2.34 a gallon Diesel 2.99 a gallon. My brother in Richmond posted 2.23 a gallon for gas there.
Old    James Hosman (get_sum)      Join Date: Jun 2012       12-10-2014, 8:19 PM Reply   
$2.04 here in OKC. It was $1.99 at one spot a few days ago.
Old    Jason Buffalow (buffalow)      Join Date: Apr 2002       12-11-2014, 10:56 AM Reply   
Shhhhhh. With 25+ vehicles on the road in my fleet, every .10 makes a huge difference in my world. Don't let anybody hear you discussing fuel.
Old    Alex Yermolenko (alexair)      Join Date: Oct 2008       12-11-2014, 12:16 PM Reply   
Right now WTI $59.60
Old    Tom (boardjnky4)      Join Date: Dec 2011       12-11-2014, 12:40 PM Reply   
Quote:
Originally Posted by rdlangston13 View Post
Let's just hope it doesn't hurt the domestic suppliers too much at the same time. I know Houston is getting nervous
Domestic suppliers have claimed that they turn a profit as low as $40/barrel.
Old    Dallas Cowboys Fan Robert T (cwb4me)      Join Date: Apr 2010       12-11-2014, 3:08 PM Reply   
Down to 2.29 a gallon for regular today.
Old    David Langston (rdlangston13)      Join Date: Feb 2011       12-11-2014, 9:55 PM Reply   
Quote:
Originally Posted by boardjnky4 View Post
Domestic suppliers have claimed that they turn a profit as low as $40/barrel.

It all depends on the field and what it takes to get to it. Some fields require less complex wells and can be drilled and produced cheaply but most of that oil is gone. The new fields being unlocked are due to advances in technology and that technology is expensive. From what I have seen and read the break even price for most of the domestic wells is between $60-80 a barrel.
Old    Pound (snyder)      Join Date: Feb 2006       12-12-2014, 7:18 AM Reply   
It also depends on the size of the producer and their balance sheets. I've read that many of the smaller players are leveraged quite a lot and aren't even making any money yet. They'll get hammered if prices go much further for a sustained period of time. They're hoping for a "v" shaped dip rather than a bathtub shaped dip in prices. The banks/lenders will get stung too. You might see a lot of assets being bought on a fire sale next year. And it's not just the producers but the service companies too. Halliburton announced a $34.6b merger/buyout of Baker Hughes last month. you think this was related... I'm going to go ahead and say yes.
...disclaimer: I'm not in the O&G industry, but do live in Houston and it gets talked about a lot around here. I heard that every onshore rig that gets shut down is about 200 jobs lost.

Oh, and I looked into that ecat deal linked above... looks to be questionable at best or a sham at worst. the "inventor" seems to be a shady dude and no credible 3rd party has been allowed to really open the thing up and verify it's output. The consensus is that they're hooking what's supposed to be the ground wire into it as a voltage carrying lead.... hence the "measured" power input is not accurate. IOW, it's probably an electric hot plate shoved in a sealed box. plug it in, it gets hot and boils water. lol. not exactly cold fusion.

Last edited by snyder; 12-12-2014 at 7:24 AM.
Old    J (Jmorlan)      Join Date: May 2013       12-12-2014, 9:52 AM Reply   
I'm just hoping things don't drop TOO far. I own a gas station so believe me I want fuel to go as low as possible, but at the same time, there is a happy medium to be achieved. As discussed above, if it goes too much lower, it will shut down a lot of higher cost domestic output, and then we are right back to where we started, and fuel prices will rise right back up.
Can't have the prices fall too far or we'll end up shooting ourself in the foot
Old     (WheelerWake)      Join Date: Mar 2013       12-13-2014, 4:58 PM Reply   
I am hoping that this is the beginning of the end of oil prices being controlled by a cartel and it goes free market. Right now I'm saving $100 a month, I would be even more happy saving $200. I know both domestic and foreign oil producers would be hurt by this, but what about everyone else saving $$$? $0.10/gallon wouldn't be too low me...
Old    J (Jmorlan)      Join Date: May 2013       12-13-2014, 7:09 PM Reply   
I honestly don't care about gas prices.(from a personal standpoint, business is another issue) It is an uncontrolled expense that I have factored into my life, and will continue to go about my life, not changing what I drive, where I drive, or how often I use my boat.
Old    Charlie Zulu (Pad1Tai)      Join Date: Jan 2013       12-14-2014, 6:42 AM Reply   
Just broke $2 bucks a gallon here in texas without rewards discounts... $1.99
Old    Meathead (meathead65)      Join Date: Sep 2006       12-14-2014, 9:06 AM Reply   
^^^^
JMo...... Are the state taxes on fuel set by a fixed amount per gallon or are they based on a percentage of the retail price, or both??? I'm just waiting for California to start crying poor if they are collecting substantially fewer tax dollars on fuel purchases.
Old    Alex Yermolenko (alexair)      Join Date: Oct 2008       12-14-2014, 10:33 AM Reply   
My guess something happens in the world and these guys know first about Bloomberg
Old    J (Jmorlan)      Join Date: May 2013       12-15-2014, 8:46 AM Reply   
Quote:
Originally Posted by meathead65 View Post
^^^^
JMo...... Are the state taxes on fuel set by a fixed amount per gallon or are they based on a percentage of the retail price, or both??? I'm just waiting for California to start crying poor if they are collecting substantially fewer tax dollars on fuel purchases.
Both. State and fed fees per gallon are fixed.
Sales tax is a percentage.
Old    Wes (pesos)      Join Date: Oct 2001       12-18-2014, 12:04 AM Reply   
$3.62 regular here in Honolulu
Old    Alex Yermolenko (alexair)      Join Date: Oct 2008       12-26-2014, 5:00 AM Reply   
Gilbert AZ now
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Old    Dallas Cowboys Fan Robert T (cwb4me)      Join Date: Apr 2010       12-26-2014, 5:09 AM Reply   
It went down to 1.96 for regular in Burnet Texas.
Old    David Langston (rdlangston13)      Join Date: Feb 2011       12-26-2014, 12:37 PM Reply   
Quote:
Originally Posted by WheelerWake View Post
I am hoping that this is the beginning of the end of oil prices being controlled by a cartel and it goes free market. Right now I'm saving $100 a month, I would be even more happy saving $200. I know both domestic and foreign oil producers would be hurt by this, but what about everyone else saving $$$? $0.10/gallon wouldn't be too low me...

I may be mistaken but I thought it was traded on the free market??
Old    Alex Yermolenko (alexair)      Join Date: Oct 2008       12-27-2014, 12:36 AM Reply   
^^^^
Oil on market using like gold or real estate for waiting for growing profit. That's why some time funds in oil business were more than 20 times more if compare with real amount of oil on the market. Is it "free market" for oil refinery?
Old    J (Jmorlan)      Join Date: May 2013       12-27-2014, 8:27 AM Reply   
Quote:
Originally Posted by rdlangston13 View Post
I may be mistaken but I thought it was traded on the free market??
What oil is PRODUCED is traded on the free market.
The way opec controls the price is by volume/output.
Price drops, they cut output, less on the market, price adjusts.
Supply and demand..
Old    David Langston (rdlangston13)      Join Date: Feb 2011       12-27-2014, 8:33 AM Reply   
Yeah, it's their oil and they have every right to decide how much to sell at a time.
Old     (WheelerWake)      Join Date: Mar 2013       12-27-2014, 4:09 PM Reply   
Price fixing by cartels (like OPEC) are the opposite of a free market. I sure hope this one is losing its influence...
Old    Pound (snyder)      Join Date: Feb 2006       12-31-2014, 9:15 AM Reply   
Here's an interesting thought. and this gets a little conspiratorial, which is always fun ;-)
Keep an eye out for any special favors, rewards, or straight up $$ from the US to Saudi Arabia for maintaining it's oil output even when it creates a severe budget shortfall ($39b I think I read) for them. They're not doing it to flex their OPEC muscles (protecting it's market share as they've stated publicly)... but rather for the primary reason of being paid or coerced into crushing the Texas/Louisiana etc, economies.
I just read an article on how the Obama administration (EIA) has eased, or is easing restrictions on exports of "Condensate" which is apparently easier to get to or is at least a tag-along product w/LNG and shale oil. This obviously would add even more global supply to the equation further suppressing prices or at least keeping prices low for longer. Why would he (or HIS administration) do that when they won't even approve the Keystone pipeline? I think it's because they want to cripple/stifle the oil industry and there is a win, win, win in it for him. Overall economy improves (FINALLY YAY!), Russia is distracted from its aggressive actions, and strong conservative states w/oil dependent economies like Texas and Louisiana would suffer (@< $50/bbl). Why would the Saudis be rocking the boat so suddenly, and to their own detriment unless they were promised something for doing so... It just doesn't make sense what they're doing. Another scary thought... if they can cut the price of oil by 1/2 or more in a little over a month so easily, think what they could do if they severely cut production?
Regardless, I'm quite happy to see prices where they are. I saved over $20 on one tank of diesel the other day from what i was paying a month ago.

Last edited by snyder; 12-31-2014 at 9:19 AM.
Old    Onthe Creek (onthecreek)      Join Date: Apr 2013       12-31-2014, 10:37 AM Reply   
There aren't many truly free markets anymore. Government subsidies, tariffs, regulations are imposed on many products/industries. That's not necessarily a bad thing. Free markets have created boom/bust cycles in the past and they aren't really good for anyone including consumers.

As far as the Saudi's, they don't want to see Iran get any stronger. Knocking the Russians down at the same time is a nice benefit. What I find interesting is that none of us are putting oil in our gas tanks. Refineries control the price of gasoline with their output. I'm surprised they haven't scaled back production more.
Old    Chris Warndahl (Livesound)      Join Date: Sep 2012       12-31-2014, 5:55 PM Reply   
I'm in texas and corpus is getting hit by refinery lay offs already. Low gas for me is a bad sign of things to come. Even though I'm in no way in the oil business it affects everything around here
Old    Alex Yermolenko (alexair)      Join Date: Oct 2008       01-01-2015, 3:20 AM Reply   
The oil market has so many parts such as drilling, service, refinery, delivery, deep chemical manufacturing, trading etc, & so in the case of changing crude oil price all of these inside parts of market has different directions of profit. I mean that even not all of them worry about low prices for crude oil.
Thanks all for discuss and I want to remind you that I've proposed to do forecast pricing on pump on April 01. Please do not hesitate
Happy New Year!
Old    Zac G (Pinkston)      Join Date: Jul 2014       01-01-2015, 7:14 AM Reply   
1.91 is the lowest I have seen out here this week.

IL
Old    Pound (snyder)      Join Date: Feb 2006       01-02-2015, 7:12 AM Reply   
I have a 270gal diesel storage tank on my property.... wondering how long I should wait before filling that puppy up.
Old    Scott (scottb7)      Join Date: Oct 2012       01-03-2015, 7:56 PM Reply   
If the state and fed fees are set at specific amount per gallon - and i think they are - then - apologize for stating the obvious here - then if price of gas goes down in half then the state and fed fees as a percent of cost per gallon doubles. i.e. 50 cents on $4 is 12.5% and 50 cents on $2 is 25%.

At this point doesn't 25% tax seem absurd? Of course it is. Nothing should be taxed that high, should it? I guess the counter argument is you gotta spend the same amount to build the roads no matter what, right? But not really cause the cost to build the roads would go down by something wouldn't it. The costs to haul the materials to the build sites would go down, right?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fuel_ta..._United_States

Last edited by scottb7; 01-03-2015 at 7:58 PM.
Old    Clarke (BaadLS1)      Join Date: Dec 2013       01-03-2015, 8:35 PM Reply   
Do you really think our politicians were smart enough to figure that out? Of course not.
Old    Scott (scottb7)      Join Date: Oct 2012       01-03-2015, 9:17 PM Reply   
Oh, I for sure think they are smart enough. They have figured out that most everyone goes to work everyday and does not have the time or energy to take them on, and for that reason hardly anyone questions anything. And they now damn well the current political system is self perpetuating, very hard to make a change. They just make a bunch of promises to get elected, and once they are elected, pretty much do what they want, only keeping in mind what the bare minimum they need to do to get re-elected.
Old    Clarke (BaadLS1)      Join Date: Dec 2013       01-03-2015, 11:03 PM Reply   
Smart from a public perspective, not from a douchebaggery perspective.
Old    Alex Yermolenko (alexair)      Join Date: Oct 2008       01-05-2015, 2:08 AM Reply   
“The benefit to consumers is a lot bigger than the hit to oil producers,” Mark Zandi, chief economist for Moody’s Analytics Inc. in West Chester, Pennsylvania, said in Dec. 23 interview. “If we stay at $60 a barrel, consumers will save $150 billion on gasoline. It’s huge. If history is any guide, the bulk of that money will be spent and will drive economic growth.”
Old    Alex Yermolenko (alexair)      Join Date: Oct 2008       04-01-2015, 11:56 AM Reply   
And finally for today. I've told $1.75
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Old    GD (diamonddad)      Join Date: Mar 2010       04-02-2015, 9:13 AM Reply   
Low gas prices are super for the USA. 1) economy boost and 2) less wealth for the crazy arse middle east.
Old    Pound (snyder)      Join Date: Feb 2006       04-09-2015, 7:59 AM Reply   
Looks like the Saudi's budget shortfall was more than 2x what they predicted (+100bn vs 39bn) causing them to look to borrowing money as opposed to dipping into their cash reserves. This might end up putting pressure on them to cut output. If the nuke deal goes thru w/Iran, they'll be allowed to sell more oil which will put the Saudi's in even more trouble (market share-wise).
...but good news for me and my fuel bill. If we were allowed to build more refineries we'd be looking at less than a dollar for gas, lol.

A local furniture tycoon in Houston has a deal going where if you buy $7k or more worth of furniture, and the price of oil on close of business 12/31/15 is $85/barrel or higher, you get the furniture for free. Looks like he's sitting pretty safe for now, but a lot can change in 8 months. He's done these kinds of deals in the past, and sometimes lost millions. He's a cool dude and a great Houstonian (Jim McIngvale - Gallery Furniture)

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