WEC - Faber vs Aldo

What up? Big round of fight this Saturday. Can't wait. What do you all think?

STOKED! We're going to be at Arco tomorrow for the fights.. can't wait!

My buddy Dave (where are you Dave??) seems to think that Faber is going to win this fight. While he is the all powerful MMA knowledge god and everything.. I'm not sure I can get on board with that. I really like Faber and I would absolutely LOVE to see him pull the upset, but I can't see how it's going to happen. Aldo is just so fast, such great striking.. I hear he's great on the ground (but you would never know it.. since his fights never get that far)... where is his weakness? The longer the fight goes, I'd think the more in Faber's favor it would be.. his cardio is insane. I hope I'm wrong and the California Kid takes it!

Everything in me says Cerrone is going to beat Henderson this time. I don't know why... I just feel it. I hope so.. LOVE the Cowboy!

I hope Mike Brown puts a beatdown on Gamburian.. can't stand that guy.

I'll try to remember my camera this time and put up some pics on Sunday.

Dang Elizabeth,

I am with you 100%. I want Faber, Cerrone and Brown. I think Faber will have a strength advantage and cardio advantage. Not sure though how that will come into play....i hope he finds a way. I want nothing more than Cowboy to finish Henderson. Cowboy is cocky sure, but he BRINGS IT in every single fight and I love that style.

Nice! At least someone else around here is on board the Faber train. I thought I was on my own.

Cerrone is cocky, but in the best possible way. He's got so much heart and is so damn likeable.. how do you NOT root for the guy? I'll take an attitude like his over Anderson Silva dancing around the ring any day of the week!

I agree that Faber should have a cardio advantage. I read on sherdog.com that their editorial guy things Aldo has more heart than Faber. That sort of blew my mind. Faber fought Brown with two broken hands.. for five rounds. He showed TREMENDOUS heart in that fight. I don't know how anyone could possibly second guess his dedication and desire to have his title back, after that.

I pulled this from the Sherdog forums.. really good post and some excellent points!

Aldo is awesome. Scary good in fact. His WEC run has been fast, vicious and exciting. So much so that it seems like a lot of people are acting as if Faber, the not long ago undisputed number one, doesn't have a snowball's chance in hell. In the Pro's picks, they picked heavily against Faber, including Ruedigar and Sinosic who are statistically the best among the pros at picking fights (yeah, I actually calculate that ****. Gabe Ruedigar has gone 26-5-4. The four are fights he decided not to make a pick either way. If you count only the ones he chose to make a decisive pick, he has an 84% prediction rate! The pros collectively have a 60% prediction rate). Thomas Rios predicted Aldo to win and seemed to struggle to even make it sound like it would be competitive. Aldo is just that good, but I think some are forgetting just how good Faber is.

Before he lost to Mike Brown, Faber was unquestionably considered the #1 featherweight. He was probably considered with-in the top 5 of the P4P and now he isn’t even on the most recent P4P because of two losses, both to Mike Brown. I don’t want to explain away those losses, Brown fought hard and valiantly in both and got the deserved wins. Nonetheless, in that first fight, Faber was doing what Faber does, running a clinic on Brown by landing fast strikes and bobbing and weaving out of danger. Faber apparently thought he was invulnerable unfortunately and did an unnecessary spinning elbow against a guy with a club for a right hand. I would really like to have seen how that fight would have played out had Faber not been a little over cocky. I got my wish because in their next fight Faber realized he was going to have to fight a smart fight with Brown.

Faber lost a decision to Brown dropping his ranking at FW and P4P even lower. But did you see the fight? In the first round the Faber broke both his hands and still managed to win a lot of the striking exchanges using only his elbows and some open handed strikes. And again we are left to wonder…what might that fight have looked like had Faber not broken his hands. I honestly think a perfectly healthy, cautious Faber would handily beat Mike Brown, but because of these two losses I think that some people, pros and fans a-like, are unconsciously using MMA math: If Faber lost to Mike Brown, and Brown got thrashed by Aldo, then Faber doesn’t have a chance against Aldo.

I think Faber is going to surprise Aldo. He is the only fighter that comes close to and may in fact be as fast as Aldo. Brown is great, but people are comparing how Faber would do by pointing out that a great wrestler like Brown couldn’t get Aldo down, so how will Faber. Well, first I contend that on the feet people will be surprised how well Faber will do against Aldo, but secondly, while Brown is good, Aldo is tailor made to beat him. Brown is a strong methodical fighter, and speed often beats strong methodical fighters. Well Faber is damn fast too and Faber’s speed can and I imagine will beat Brown eventually. Faber’s wrestling shouldn’t be compared to Browns. Faber actually has the speed to get a good double or single leg on Aldo and this fight will hit the mat.

I’m not so confident that I would bet money or even a sig on this fight, but I think Faber’s chances are more respectable than people think. And I think Faber takes it.

Aldo, Brown, Njkouiani, Cerrone

Faber has to fight probably the most strategic fight of his career in order to win. Can he? Absolutely. Will he? Who knows. IMO, in order to win, Faber has to close the distance to nullify Aldo's speed....either clinch or take him down. Having said that, Aldo may be the best BJJ fighter in the world off his back...we just don't know.

Cerrone knows he has to break something of Henderson's in order to submit him, and I think he will do just that tonight.

Brown (please please please) will murder Gamburyan. Can't wait to see it. Should be KO of the night.

Roller vs. Njokuani is gonna be a fun fight. Standup vs. Ground. Who can impose their will? Winner of that will likely fight Cerrone / Henderson winner next.

Ouch Liz...we went 0 for 3. Damn. I hope you had fun at the event non the less.

I thought the "korean zombie" (LOL) got robbed.

WOW. I went 2 for 3, btu so bummed about faber. You guys see the pictures he released of his leg last night?

Aldo created the PERFECT game plan. Kind of like Forrest did to Rampage. If you take that leg out, you control the entire fight.

Might be time for Faber to go to UFC and start on his way to the 155 challenge. Although the top 3-4 at that class he could struggle with.

Mike - I know... it was not a good night for me. I'm still kind of in shock at how it all went down. I picked Aldo to win.. so no surprise there.. but damn, those leg kicks were BRUTAL. It was hard watching Faber nearly unable to stand and look 100% defeated.

I still can't believe Gamburian knocked out Mike Brown. Or the 2009 fight of the year was over in the blink of an eye. I feel like I'm in the twilight zone!

The Garcia fight.. honestly.. could have gone either way. I know some felt like the Korean guy (sorry, forget his name) was robbed.. but being there in person and seeing everything unfold.. it could have gone either way and I wouldn't have been mad. It was an AWESOME fight. Both guys gave it their all and I wouldn't have been mad either way at the outcome... they fought their hearts out.

I think Faber should stay right where he is. Aldo will lose at some point and it will create a whole new set of match-ups in the future. Until then, there are plenty of good fights for him left in the WEC.

I have some pics to post - I'll work on it in the next couple of days.

Saw this AWFUL article in the Sac Bee...

http://www.sacbee.com/2010/04/26/270...for-faber.html

Has to be one of the most ridiculous things I've ever read. Faber is 30 years old! Because he lost to Aldo (as has everyone else).. he should retire? Nonsense! Aldo is just THAT good.

Did you guys hear about Tito Ortiz? In custody in Huntington Beach for felony domestic violence? All I read is that a neighbor called 911 to report a domestic disturbance and when the police arrived, Jenna Jameson had visible injuries.

They have twin babies together.

Wow. Tito's octogon personality aside.. be really seemed like a nice guy. I have been really impressed with him as a coach on TUF. How disappointing.

Yhea TITO is going to get what he deserves I bet. This will take him out for awhile. Dana is alredy saying if it is true he will cut Tito. First the fall out with Liddell fight and now this..

I really like Tito.. but damn.. if this is true (and it appears it is) - he's finished and rightfully so.

Payouts for the WEC event: (A lot of these seem really low to me)

WEC 48 Payouts

Benson Henderson -- $91,000 (including $11,000 win bonus, $65,000 submission bonus)
def.
Donald Cerrone -- $14,000

Jose Aldo -- $40,000 (including $20,000 win bonus)
def.
Urijah Faber -- $28,000

Manny Gamburyan -- $101,000 (including $18,000 win bonus, $65,000 knockout bonus)
def.
Mike Thomas Brown-- $21,000

Shane Roller -- $28,000 (including $14,000 win bonus)
def.
Anthony Njokuani -- $7,000

Scott Jorgensen-- $21,000 (including $10,500 win bonus)
def.
Antonio Banuelos -- $7,000

Leonard Garcia -- $93,000 (including $14,000 win bonus, $65,000 FOTN bonus)
def.
Chan Sung Jung -- $70,000 (including $65,000 FOTN bonus)

Anthony Pettis -- $8,000 (including $4,000 win bonus)
def.
Alex Karalexis -- $10,000

Brad Pickett -- $8,000 (including $4,000 win bonus)
def.
Demetrious Johnson -- $3,000

Chad Mendes -- $8,500 (including $4,000 win bonus)
def.
Anthony Morrison -- $4,000

Takeya Mizugaki -- $16,000 (including $8,000 win bonus)
def.
Rani Yahya -- $9,000

Tyler Toner -- $5,000 (including $2,000 win bonus)
def.
Brandon Visher -- $4,000

Here are a few pictures from the event, as promised. Sorry it took forever to post.