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Old    Billy (woreout)      Join Date: Aug 2006       01-05-2010, 10:25 AM Reply   
Its WAAAAAAY too cold here. Al Gore can kiss my rear end. Global Warming? I dont think so!!
http://www.theledger.com/article/20100104/NEWS/1045063/1410?Title=Low-of-24-Degrees-Reported-in-Winter-Haven
Old    Manzo (zo1)      Join Date: Aug 2002       01-05-2010, 10:40 AM Reply   
I am with you....

In Central NC and we have not see it get above 34 since Friday...
Old    Peter_C (peter_c)      Join Date: Sep 2001       01-05-2010, 10:43 AM Reply   
We are having a El Nino over here in California. Our ocean temperatures are much warmer than normal. As of yesterday the Pacific ocean temperature is 55 degrees. Scary stuff! Remember the planet is comprised of over 72% water. The ocean temperatures are what you follow not land temps.

For the first known time in San Francisco history most of our Sea Lions bailed and headed to the colder water in Oregon.
Old    Sam Ingram (wakeboardsam)      Join Date: Jun 2008       01-05-2010, 10:46 AM Reply   
That's why they changed it to "Climate Change", it works both ways now!

I just "Hope" we can start taxing the people who caused this "Change" and give the proceeds to the people who did not! Of course we will need an intermediary to help collect those taxes and distribute the proceeds, who deserves a small slice of the tax for their trouble...
Old    Brett W (brettw)      Join Date: Jul 2007       01-05-2010, 11:06 AM Reply   
My father-in-law in Russia recently said it was raining on New Year's - in a place where it hadn't done that for as long as he remembers. He was in a place that is always at 0 degrees C or below at this time of the year, and he was saying something about global warming.

Of course, weather for the current day, week, or month is no evidence for or against global warming at all. It's a bit too short-sighted, and both sides should agree.
Old    C.I.E..... Evan (guido)      Join Date: Jul 2002       01-05-2010, 11:07 AM Reply   
Al Gore can lick my *****.

Amazing... for once it's warmer in Cali than it is in Florida.
Old    Manzo (zo1)      Join Date: Aug 2002       01-05-2010, 11:15 AM Reply   
We are having a El Nino over here in California.

Yea, our local weather guy was stating that it was the el nino that causes the huge dip in the jet stream and the arctic air to come down here on the right coast.
Old    Billy (woreout)      Join Date: Aug 2006       01-05-2010, 11:22 AM Reply   
The Gulf of Mexico off the coast of Florida was 53 degrees as of this weekend. So I guess I should start seeing some of your seals arriving here soon.
Big Al and Company always talks about the North Pole and how it is shrinking, but what they never talk about is the even Larger South Pole and how it is growing. Last I heard the South Pole makes up 70% of the planets polar ice caps.
Old    Eubanks (eubanks01)      Join Date: Jun 2001       01-05-2010, 11:32 AM Reply   
Supposed to be below 0 windshield temps this week in Dallas. I've lived here my entire life and have never heard of such. Yikes!
Old    Aaron (alindquist)      Join Date: Mar 2004       01-05-2010, 11:50 AM Reply   
Woke up to 21 degrees this morning and I'm only about 1 mile north of the Gulf of Mexico in the FL panhandle. They are saying it could get down into the teen by the weekend...
Old    Mark Anderson (puckinshat)      Join Date: Sep 2003       01-05-2010, 12:12 PM Reply   
I'm not sure it has been above 0* for a week here in MN. Quit complaining. My nose burns everytime I breathe in too fast. Al Gore can suck it.
Old    Jeff Baker (innov8)      Join Date: May 2005       01-05-2010, 12:21 PM Reply   
Billy hope the Citrus is going to be ok, what have you heard, big problems?
Old    Billy (woreout)      Join Date: Aug 2006       01-05-2010, 12:25 PM Reply   
Tonight is going to be the worst. They probably will fire most of the groves tonight because its supposed to stay below freezing for several hours. The strawberry farmers are the ones getting their asses kicked.
Old    Ben B (benbuchholz)      Join Date: Oct 2009       01-05-2010, 12:30 PM Reply   
i'm hoping Eubanks had a brain fart? wind chill, not windshield. Speaking of Wind chill, here in central Minnesota yesterday it was -5 with a -20 degree wind chill. I'll switch with anyone in Florida in a heartbeat! heck i'd still be wakeboardin in shorts. +1 with Mark!
Old    Manzo (zo1)      Join Date: Aug 2002       01-05-2010, 12:34 PM Reply   
The strawberry farmers are the ones getting their asses kicked.

I have never understood how covering strawberries with ice protects them from a freeze... How's that one work?
Old    Ben B (benbuchholz)      Join Date: Oct 2009       01-05-2010, 12:38 PM Reply   
^^ keeps the wind from hitting the oranges. pretty much keeps the orange from getting any colder than 32 degrees and damaging the fruit. works as an insulator. thats my understanding anyway, i could be wrong
Old    Eubanks (eubanks01)      Join Date: Jun 2001       01-05-2010, 12:54 PM Reply   
Ben - Haha! You've never heard of the windshield factor? It's the latest weather measurement. Thanks for catching that and making me feel smart.

I think the low on Thursday in Dallas is around 14.
Old    Jon (jon4pres)      Join Date: May 2004       01-05-2010, 1:12 PM Reply   
On friday night in southeast kansas the low is -9.

I can't wait to get my gas bill this month.
Old    dave allen (dave)      Join Date: Apr 2002       01-05-2010, 1:41 PM Reply   
I can't wait to get my gas bill this month.


I can.
Old    Billy (woreout)      Join Date: Aug 2006       01-06-2010, 1:51 PM Reply   
Covering the berries with ice keeps them at 32 degrees and also keeps them from drying out. It only works for so long though and then they are no good. The price of strawberrys will be sky high this year no doubt.
Old    Manzo (zo1)      Join Date: Aug 2002       01-06-2010, 2:00 PM Reply   
^^ That just seems backwards (though I am no strawberry farming expert)...
Old    David Williams (wakeworld)      Join Date: Jan 1997       01-06-2010, 3:12 PM Reply   
It's 80 in So Cal...I'm just sayin'.
Old    jeff fitzgerald (jefefitz)      Join Date: May 2002       01-06-2010, 3:19 PM Reply   
the magic number for real crop damage is 28 degrees, some crops benefit from a short period at freezing or just above.
Old    Scott (magicr)      Join Date: May 2004       01-06-2010, 3:25 PM Reply   
55 degrees today in Southern Oregon and only 4 inches of rain for the water year. Hopefully El Nino breaks down or were going to be screwed all the way around this summer.
Old    Peter_C (peter_c)      Join Date: Sep 2001       01-06-2010, 8:55 PM Reply   
Earths climate is mostly controlled by the ocean currents. The wind affects the current. The water temperature affects the wind and current. It is remarkable that everything has been kept roughly the same for as long as it has. The ocean waters are warming, which are changing the currents. El Nino' is the result for now.

Ying and Yang. One thing affects another.
Old    GettingOlder (magellan)      Join Date: Feb 2003       01-07-2010, 5:47 AM Reply   
Peter, you must have been involved with the Russian emails about "climate change".

Good luck with that.
Old    Peter_C (peter_c)      Join Date: Sep 2001       01-07-2010, 7:51 AM Reply   
NO I studied science. You should try it!

I could care less what a politician has to say.
Old    David Clements (dcdave56)      Join Date: Jun 2008       01-07-2010, 11:21 AM Reply   
Yah, I ran on the beach at dark last night in shorts and a t-shirt here on the Central Coast of California, it felt like August.
Old    Barry Waste (barry)      Join Date: Apr 2002       01-07-2010, 1:43 PM Reply   

For the first known time in San Francisco history most of our Sea Lions bailed and headed to the colder water in Oregon.


Peter, that is very, very misleading. The Sea Lions didn't even start showing up until the late 80's. The 'history' you speak of is fairly short.
I don't want to pick a fight with you, I think you're a really nice guy with good intentions.. but this is the type of thing irks me about the climate change bunch. They don't know why the sea lions left.. they don't even know why they came. Their *gasp!* sudden disappearance must be due to global warming!!!!
C'mon.. I expect more out of you, Peter.
Old    Nick Tomsyck (sidekicknicholas)      Join Date: Mar 2007       01-07-2010, 2:43 PM Reply   
i'm on vacation in L.A. and it has been beautiful, first winter in a while I haven't been in FL... and sorta happy at the moment.

Back at my school house (Wisco) only like 40 min from the cities it was setting record lows... I think the news said like ~-40* without wind. Awful.


Billy, odds are if we were down there this year we would still be in shorts... because Yanks, are real men.
Old    Chris Butler (xistential)      Join Date: Jul 2007       01-07-2010, 4:16 PM Reply   
They said on tonites news we might get a brief snow flurry on Saturday. Snow in Florida? Lol, Al Gore where are you now???
In times like these global warming switches to the even more nebulous, "climate change".
Old    Scott (magicr)      Join Date: May 2004       01-07-2010, 5:24 PM Reply   
The funny thing is if you lived in Southern Oregon the past few years you would swear there was global warming. Last summer we had something like 15 days over 100.

I don't really have an opinion either way, but come on, to listen to all of you guys say, hey we got down to freezing, or it snowed, or it's really cold, so that means there is no global warming.

40 years ago it used to snow like crazy here, usually every year, now not so much. Mainly lately it's El Nino, (we get no weather). or La Nina tons of weather.

That being said our 50 degree days and 45 nights are feeling really good considering what everyone else is getting east of the Great Divide.
Old    Peter_C (peter_c)      Join Date: Sep 2001       01-07-2010, 6:54 PM Reply   
Barry, you should know me well enough by now to know I have NEVER used the term "Global Warming".

A little history lesson is probably in order. As you know Monterey was the hub of commercial sardine fishing for many years as was San Francisco. We all but depleted the fish stocks.

"Pacific sardine biomass peaked in 1936 at 3,600,000 metric tons, but steeply declined to less than 10,000 metric tons by 1965. Fisheries collapsed, and the stock did not increase noticeably for about 15 years. Stock biomass increased from low levels in the early 1980s to a peak of over 1.7 million metric tons in 2000. The stock has subsequently declined to lower levels and was estimated to be approximately 832,706 metric tons in 2007."

So you are correct in the 1980's as the fish stocks increased the sea lions came back to the SF area. So the speculation this time is that they left to follow their main food source sardines.

# Spawning season: The southern stock spawns year round, peaking April through August between San Francisco and Magdalena Bay, Mexico, and January through April in the Gulf of California. Off Oregon and Washington, sardine spawn from May to July.

# Spawning grounds: Pacific sardine spawn in the upper 160 feet of the water column. The location and timing of spawning is strongly influenced by water temperature.

# Migrations: Pacific sardine are highly mobile and move seasonally along the coast. Older adults may move from spawning grounds in southern California and northern Baja California to feeding/spawning grounds off the Pacific Northwest and Canada. Younger adults appear to migrate to feeding grounds primarily in central and northern California.

# Predators: Pacific sardine are eaten by a variety of predators throughout their lives. Marine mammals (sea lions, seals, porpoises, and whales).

Now bring on the Tuna that we are never supposed to see in NorCal! I remember recently chatting with an old salty fisherman heading out less than 20 miles out of Albion off our coast to go tuna fishing. The tuna are not usually that close to the coast. Tuna will follow the warmer waters though and they extend far North right now.

Edit: This came from a very interesting article.
"CONCLUSIONS
We have shown that the general pattern of migration
for the Pacific sardine in the Gulf of California
proposed by Sokolov and Wong-Rios (1973) and
Sokolov (1974) is consistent with the seasonal
changes in near-surface temperature and circulation.
We have also suggested a mechanism by
which interannual variations in recruitment may be
related to the occurrence and strength of El Nifio/
Southern Oscillation events."

(Message edited by peter_c on January 07, 2010)
Old    Barry Waste (barry)      Join Date: Apr 2002       01-07-2010, 11:24 PM Reply   
Thanks Peter. :-)
Old    Billy (woreout)      Join Date: Aug 2006       01-08-2010, 8:33 AM Reply   
They are talking about snow in Central Florida this weekend!!!! Holy crap! When I was a kid it snowed here in 1977 so it would be cool for my kids to see it snow here. I wonder what I could get for Florida snow on Ebay?
Old    Dhtige Hill (dh03r6)      Join Date: Mar 2007       01-08-2010, 8:51 AM Reply   
Here in MN we have 365 days of winter,the ice melts for a few months thats a treat. I wish in would warm up here.
Old    Brian (TXSurf) (bac)      Join Date: Feb 2008       01-08-2010, 10:19 AM Reply   
It was 26 this morning in Houston with a windchill of 12, I can't remember it ever getting that cold here. And to think not even 2 months ago I was still out riding, this is nuts
Old    Peter_C (peter_c)      Join Date: Sep 2001       01-15-2010, 12:58 PM Reply   
Subject: West Coast Winter Storm Warning starting Sunday

Hang onto your hats folks it is going to get ugly! El Nino is coming out to play. Sounds like it could snow snow snow, then rain rain rain, like it did in the past causing severe flooding and loss of snow pack. Time will tell.

Currently, the strong El Nino is reaching its peak in the Eastern Pacific, and now finally appears to be exerting an influence on our weather. The strong jet has been apparent for quite some time out over the open water, but the persistent block had prevented it from reaching the coast. Now that the block has dissolved completely, a 200+ kt jet is barreling towards us. Multiple large and powerful storm systems are expected to slam into CA from the west and northwest over the coming two weeks, all riding this extremely powerful jet stream directly into the state. The jet will itself provide tremendous dynamic lift, in addition to directing numerous disturbances right at the state and supplying them with an ample oceanic moisture source. The jet will be at quite a low latitude over much of the Pacific, so these storms will be quite cold, at least initially. Very heavy rainfall and strong to potentially very strong winds will impact the lower elevations beginning late Sunday and continuing through at least the following Sunday. This will be the case for the entire state, from (and south of) the Mexican border all the way up to Oregon. Above 3000-4000 feet, precipitation will be all snow, and since temperatures will be unusually cold for a precipitation event of this magnitude, a truly prodigious amount of snowfall is likely to occur in the mountains, possibly measured in the tens of feet in the Sierra after it's all said and done. But there's a big and rather threatening caveat to that (discussed below).Individual storm events are going to be hard to time for at least few more days, since this jet is just about as powerful as they come (on this planet, anyway). Between this Sunday and the following Sunday, I expect categorical statewide rainfall totals in excess of 3-4 inches. That is likely to be a huge underestimate for most areas. Much of NorCal is likely to see 5-10 inches in the lowlands, with 10-20 inches in orographically-favored areas. Most of SoCal will see 3-6 inches at lower elevations, with perhaps triple that amount in favored areas.

This is where things get even more interesting, though. The models are virtually unanimous in "reloading" the powerful jet stream and forming an additional persistent kink 2000-3000 miles to our southwest after next Sunday. This is a truly ominous pattern, because it implies the potential for a strong Pineapple-type connection to develop. Indeed, the 12z GFS now shows copious warm rains falling between days 12 and 16 across the entire state. Normally, such as scenario out beyond day seven would be dubious at best. Since the models are in such truly remarkable agreement, however, and because of the extremely high potential impact of such an event, it's worth mentioning now. Since there will be a massive volume of freshly-fallen snow (even at relatively low elevations between 3000-5000 feet), even a moderately warm storm event would cause very serious flooding. This situation will have to be monitored closely. Even if the tropical connection does not develop, expected rains in the coming 7-10 days will likely be sufficient to cause flooding in and of themselves (even in spite of dry antecedent conditions).

In addition to very heavy precipitation, powerful winds may result from very steep pressure gradients associated with the large and deep low pressure centers expect ed to begin approaching the coast by early next week. Though it's not clear at the moment just how powerful these winds may be, there is certainly the potential for a widespread damaging wind event at some point, and the high Sierra peaks are likely to see gusts in the 100-200 mph range (since the 200kt jet at 200-300 mb will essentially run directly into the mountains at some point). The details of this will have to be hashed out as the event(s) draw closer.

In short, the next 2-3 weeks (at least) are likely to be more active across California than any other 2-3 week period in recent memory. The potential exists for a dangerous flood scenario to arise at some point during this interval, especially with the possibility of a heavy rain-on-snow event during late week 2. In some parts of Southern California, a whole season's worth of rain could fall over the course of 5-10 days. This is likely to be a rather memorable event. Stay tuned…

--
Samuel Y. Johnson
Western Coastal and Marine Geology
U.S. Geological Survey

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