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-   -   Electoral College Model Predicts Romney Will Win Big in 2012 (http://www.wakeworld.com/forum/showthread.php?t=795183)

Tucker_McElroy 08-23-2012 9:40 AM

Electoral College Model Predicts Romney Will Win Big in 2012
 
http://www.theblaze.com/wp-content/u...errybicker.png

Analysis of election factors points to Romney win, University of Colorado study says..

I can't see how Iowa would stay blue, but they do have Minnesota turning red...

ord27 08-23-2012 11:19 AM

I agree Tucker. My guess is that the popular vote is closer than 52 to 48.
this will lead to a bunch of finger pointing and name calling from the losing side.
I also believe that Obama could win the popular vote but lose the election. It will really hit the fan then. I would bet that most of our population doesn't really understand how our elections work. I also predict that if this is the case, Obama will not be gratious and conceed. It will be a fight long after Novermber expires.

Can we have a civil thread this time?

wake77 08-23-2012 12:06 PM

Most maps I have seen show Obama winning the electoral college. I guess you surfed around until you found one that made you happy.

I think it is a giant leap of faith to believe Obama loses MN. And it is really going out on a limb to give him PA. FL is up for grabs and MO just became available due to the "legitimate rape" debacle. Not to mention, the senate seat that is probably going to be lost necessary for a victorious Romney to repeal Obamacare. CO is not solid Romney, nor VA where he is trailing due a third party candidate that is grabbing ~9% of the vote. OH is still up for grabs. WI being Ryan's home state also does not guarantee a GOP victory.

I think the Akin controversy is going to cost Romney some of the independent vote he needed to gain in the election. It also hurts him with women voters. And I understand that Romney and most of the GOP has asked Akin to end his race, but the GOP just reaffirmed its stance on being anti-Abortion in any scenario, including "legitimate rape" and incest.

wake77 08-23-2012 12:13 PM

Exit polling done during the Scott Walker recall election, still had Obama several points ahead.

And if Romney was to pull this one out, it won't be a "Big Win".

Tucker_McElroy 08-23-2012 12:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by wake77 (Post 1777902)
Most maps I have seen show Obama winning the electoral college. I guess you surfed around until you found one that made you happy.

Did you fail to see that this model has picked the winner with 100% accuracy since 1980?

brettw 08-23-2012 12:40 PM

Who cares? Most polls, maps, etc show these guys pretty close. A lot can change between now and elections, and with this close an election, having a map, survery, poll, etc. showing one of these guys a little ahead of the other means very little at this point. Let's wait till election day. I think it'll be close with no 'Big Win', but then again, who cares what anyone predicts?

Tucker_McElroy 08-23-2012 1:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by brettw (Post 1777907)
Who cares? Most polls, maps, etc show these guys pretty close. A lot can change between now and elections, and with this close an election, having a map, survery, poll, etc. showing one of these guys a little ahead of the other means very little at this point. Let's wait till election day. I think it'll be close with no 'Big Win', but then again, who cares what anyone predicts?

Brett,
If you look at the map and read the article the prediction is not a close race at 320 to 218. This model also doesn't change the sooner you get to the election, it is based on indicators from the state level, not the media, polls, etc...

From one of the creators of the model
Quote:

Election prediction models “suggest that presidential elections are about big things and the stewardship of the national economy,” Bickers said. “It’s not about gaffes, political commercials or day-to-day campaign tactics. I find that heartening for our democracy.”

Laker1234 08-23-2012 1:09 PM

IMHO, the middle-class is doomed either way just pick your poison—the over regulation of health care versus losing our few tax deductions.

Tucker_McElroy 08-23-2012 1:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Laker1234 (Post 1777921)
IMHO, the middle-class is doomed either way just pick your poison—the over regulation of health care versus losing our few tax deductions.

Who's platform have you been reading?

brettw 08-23-2012 1:36 PM

I'm not sure what point there is to discussing how close it is at this point.

But here's another map I just found at the top of the google search I did.

http://www.latimes.com/news/politics...,5582482.story

and another:

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/...-electoral-map

Looks like Obama is clearly ahead. Who cares, though? We'll see how things go over the next few months.

Next post, I'm going to start throwing up some funny pictures and videos.

bigdtx 08-23-2012 1:39 PM

I took a look at http://www.theblaze.com/

I guess this is where Tucker gets his pablum.

pesos 08-23-2012 1:42 PM

"They warn the model does not account for sudden changes in the economy or unexpected developments in states split 50-50. Polls in many states, including Colorado, show a virtually deadlocked race."

Tucker_McElroy 08-23-2012 2:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bigdtx (Post 1777939)
I took a look at http://www.theblaze.com/

I guess this is where Tucker gets his pablum.

Actually, I first saw it on the Daily Caller, but The Blaze had the best map that I could link to. I was a little disappointed that the map wasn't available from the CU website.

Pablum huh? Whatever, buddy... whatever.. if anyone here knows anything about trite or naïveté I doubt I would win the grand prize. I'm glad to see that you are over your temper tantrum though, I would hate to see you put in the corner.

I think the interesting thing about this model is that past accuracy of it and the fact it was done by a State College.

bigdtx 08-23-2012 5:52 PM

*ucker I could keep posting your video 10x in a row all day but it would get old - just like your juvenile ramblings. I got a few laughs out of it, now time to move on. Get it? "Move On". I had to spell it out for you since it's pretty obvious you're not too quick off the mark - even though you hang out with the founders of Intel and Xerox. You're such a gold mine another winner will present itself shortly as long as you have access to a conputer.

Tucker_McElroy 08-23-2012 5:57 PM

Big D,
You don't have to open my threads... Really, you don't.

wake77 08-23-2012 6:07 PM

Tucker, why no response to Brett's link where it shows Obama with a 9 point advantage over Romney in PA? This is why everyone doesn't take you seriously. You post links that we're supposed to take as gospel, but links people post that contradict what you say are either: A. Completely ignored by you or B. You result to insults or childish behavior. I believe Brett's link is credible and judging by Ann Coulter's comments on Hannity last night, she doesn't agree with your contention the election is a Romney big win. For you to say otherwise is disingenuous.

wake77 08-23-2012 6:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pesos (Post 1777942)
"They warn the model does not account for sudden changes in the economy or unexpected developments in states split 50-50. Polls in many states, including Colorado, show a virtually deadlocked race."

Not to mention the creator also warns, "just because it has worked in the past doesn't mean it will work this election".

Tucker_McElroy 08-23-2012 8:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by wake77 (Post 1778015)
Tucker, why no response to Brett's link where it shows Obama with a 9 point advantage over Romney in PA? This is why everyone doesn't take you seriously. You post links that we're supposed to take as gospel, but links people post that contradict what you say are either: A. Completely ignored by you or B. You result to insults or childish behavior. I believe Brett's link is credible and judging by Ann Coulter's comments on Hannity last night, she doesn't agree with your contention the election is a Romney big win. For you to say otherwise is disingenuous.

So I can't have my own opinion? I can't have the opinion that a study done by a college with a track record is better than one that someone I. The media or with a campaign paid for?

You're pretty damn egotistical to think that I care what others think about my opinion, especially yours.

wake77 08-24-2012 4:46 AM

^So I guess in a roundabout way, you are saying you are incapable of having a civil debate. And no I wasn't trying to say you can't have your own opinion, but I don't think you should get all bent out of shape just because someone wants you to defend your stance. Especially when you start a thread that proclaims "Romney is predicted to win big", when all of the evidence, including Karl Rove, shows it is going to be a very close election. I mean when someone asks me why I like a certain sports team, I may say because they play in my home state or I grew up watching their games and have always liked them, but I don't jump down someone's throat just because they ask me why or because they like another team.

And another thing. I have heard the same kind of "media" rhetoric going around many of the conservative pundits and politicians. So to get one thing straight; is "media" a reference to what was referred to as the "liberal media"? Is "media" now a conservative bad word? Is Fox News no longer considering themselves the "media"?

rdlangston13 08-24-2012 6:35 AM

Karl Rove would say it is going to be a close race. Telling his base how close it is going to be will get them motivated to go to the polls, kind of like saying "every vote will count". You don't want the media predicting a blowout because that could have an adverse psychological effect on your voting base. May give them the attitude that "My vote is not needed so I will stay home". Then again either strategy could also have the opposite effect.

Tucker_McElroy 08-24-2012 7:45 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by wake77 (Post 1778097)
^So I guess in a roundabout way, you are saying you are incapable of having a civil debate. And no I wasn't trying to say you can't have your own opinion, but I don't think you should get all bent out of shape just because someone wants you to defend your stance. Especially when you start a thread that proclaims "Romney is predicted to win big", when all of the evidence, including Karl Rove, shows it is going to be a very close election. I mean when someone asks me why I like a certain sports team, I may say because they play in my home state or I grew up watching their games and have always liked them, but I don't jump down someone's throat just because they ask me why or because they like another team.

And another thing. I have heard the same kind of "media" rhetoric going around many of the conservative pundits and politicians. So to get one thing straight; is "media" a reference to what was referred to as the "liberal media"? Is "media" now a conservative bad word? Is Fox News no longer considering themselves the "media"?

I was specifically referring to this study, done by scholars. The title of the thread is the title of the accompanying article... I think the mainstream media is no longer doing its job on any level, they all have motives and are all supporting candidates

wake77 08-24-2012 12:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tucker_McElroy (Post 1778128)
I was specifically referring to this study, done by scholars. The title of the thread is the title of the accompanying article... I think the mainstream media is no longer doing its job on any level, they all have motives and are all supporting candidates

Is Fox News considered part of the "mainstream media"?

08-24-2012 1:34 PM

I'll switch spots with you guys for the next week. I live in Tampa and this place is a crazy zoo already, all kinds of threats from protestors blah blah.

Tucker_McElroy 08-24-2012 1:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by wake77 (Post 1778222)
Is Fox News considered part of the "mainstream media"?

Of course it is... why would ask that?

brettw 08-27-2012 4:25 PM

Here's a recent Romney video I came across. I would of put it in the other thread but it's got those idiotic videos that play automatically when you click on them. Sort of interesting. Sounds sort of like another candidate.

<iframe width="420" height="315" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/a2hXCjAMGdk" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

pesos 08-27-2012 5:16 PM

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/0...uction-in-2010

Tucker_McElroy 08-27-2012 5:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pesos (Post 1778843)

The Daily Kos... LOL.. Who cares about Bain? Obama has a lot more in his closet..


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