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-   Archive through March 18, 2009 (http://www.wakeworld.com/forum/forumdisplay.php?f=680898)
-   -   who will be the first to fall? (http://www.wakeworld.com/forum/showthread.php?t=678304)

greatdane 03-15-2009 12:45 AM

This economy is brutal. First gas approached $5 per gallon. Next, homes fell and banks followed. Now most of America is tightening their belt and avoiding boat purchases. So, who do you think will fall? Will it be the startups like Axis/Epic, or the little guy like Sanger/Supra or a big guy like Mastercraft (who is hurting bad). Or, do you think they will all weather the storm? IMO, the big guys who are building the bigger and more expense boats will hurt the most while the startups like Axis, Wakecraft and Epic will be in big trouble.

ponte_06_x2 03-15-2009 12:55 AM

none of them. the tax payers will buy the companies. not only will we be buying the boat companies. we'll have to buy the boats too. we'll get it both ways. i can sell a boat to myself at a profit.

fic 03-15-2009 4:07 AM

I hope they all survive, and we buy more american products to create more jobs, but I fear its just a dream. Ski boat market has been one of the only markets that foreign companys havent been able to penetrate , except in the components on the boats. Toyota tryed and failed with the epic.

alans 03-15-2009 5:55 AM

There is no way to have a real clue what will happen to the boat manufacturers unless you know their situation. First of all Supra/Moomba(Skier's Choice) is a top three manufacturer as far as volume. I have not looked at numbers lately but they may be #1. Sanger is a small privately owned company. Axis is a part of Malibu boats which is a huge company, with huge overhead and manufacturing capabilities. <BR> <BR>It all comes down to their financial situation. Its like trying to guess who is going to default on their mortgage. Some people stretch themselves, some put down 20-30%, some pay cash. There is no way to know. I do know, however, that there are some manufacturers that are debt free and none of them are "big three."

michaelspsp 03-15-2009 6:26 AM

why do you say MC is hurting bad? are they hurting more or less than anyone else? how do you know? no one knows. these threads are nothing but negative energy. they do no good for the wakeboarding industry

mhunter 03-15-2009 7:39 AM

I read that MC is sitting on 30 plus months of <BR>new non current inventory. If that's true it would make any company hurt. Its all about the deep pockets and building products the market will buy. I don't want to see any go out. They all contribute to advance the sport. The winners will be the ones that evolve to the new market <BR>the fastest.

ponyh8r 03-15-2009 7:42 AM

Isn't MC owned by Penske? That would put them in the best financial situation I would think. Penske is a large company with deep pockets and could keep MC afloat for a long time if they so choose.

michaelspsp 03-15-2009 7:53 AM

30 plus months of new non current inventory? <BR>please, think about that.....

cpizzle 03-15-2009 8:07 AM

At the rates that boats are NOT selling and the way that they were crankin them out, I believe it! I know of dealers that are sitting on new '07s. And they'll prob still have a couple when the 2010's come out.

michaelspsp 03-15-2009 8:18 AM

thats weird because i know of a dealer who sold nautiques and switched to MC at the end of 07 and sold 3 times more MCs then they ever sold nautiques in 08. my mc dealer has only a couple of 08s and no 07s...

greatdane 03-15-2009 8:24 AM

MCs in CA are being discounted massively. For example, $25K or $30K off an XSTAR. <BR> <BR>A sales dude told me that sales in a good shop fell from 1 a day (2007) to 3 a month (2008/2009). <BR> <BR>I also heard that the fall of Copes/UWS left 100s of 2008 MC/BU boats in inventory. <BR> <BR>Its a buyers market out there.

michaelspsp 03-15-2009 8:31 AM

everything in every industry is being discounted massively. we are in the worse recession ever seen. GM may not survive. did you or anyone think GM would collapse? the largest car company in the world? do you know how many car dealers have closed in the NJ/NY market?times are bad for all industries. the DOW is less than half of what it was. all this negative talk will make the recession last longer and cause more employees to be laid off and companies to close. that causes the delis and other stores that supported the employees to close. it becomes one massive mess..... these threads are bad for everyone.

deltawake 03-15-2009 8:59 AM

At the Sac boat show last night, I spoke with someone well placed at the Malibu factory. He stated that all of Cope's old inventory had been sold. He said that it was about 140 Malibus, and that they had been sold all over the country after being refurbished at the factory.

cavlxenvy 03-15-2009 9:20 AM

^^^ Cope's old inventory was sold at discounted prices to dealers. I think the boat MFGRs will have to be smart to make it through all of this and I don't see anybody coming to help them out (i.e. Gov't).

mtownrydr 03-15-2009 11:41 AM

I personally think boat companies should suffer with the prices they offer...The only reason they are still in operation is because they have been ripping people off for a number of years now with their 80k wakeboats. It is so hard for me to believe that no company can manufacture a wake worthy boat for under 30k! It all goes back to the corporate greed that got us in this mess. People want to see how much money they can make.

07launch22ssv 03-15-2009 8:42 PM

these threads really blow me away.......its amazing how much most people don't know about the inner workings of dealers and manufacturers..... <BR> <BR>p.s. last i checked in terms of production <BR>#1-malibu <BR>#2-mastercraft <BR>#3-skiers choice <BR>#4-correct craft <BR>after that the numbers really drop off from thousands to hundreds

formfunction 03-15-2009 9:09 PM

Andrew,your figures are two years old.malibu is no longer number one.

07launch22ssv 03-15-2009 9:11 PM

like i said last i checked.....

formfunction 03-15-2009 9:13 PM

I would also like to add that the number one spot amounts to 1.1 percent of the small boat market just to put your thousands into perspective. <BR> <BR><a href="http://www.tradeonlytoday.com/index.php/component/content/article/20-highlights-by-the-numbers/496794-third-quarter-sales-decline-affects-every-boating-segment.html" target="_blank">http://www.tradeonlytoday.com/index.php/component/content/article/20-highlights-by-the-numbers/496794-third-quarter-sales-decline-affects-every-boating-segment.html</a>

07launch22ssv 03-15-2009 9:16 PM

Brock, those numbers are new boat sales not production....not that I'm saying I'm right still, the top 2 spots change frequently..... <BR> <BR>Alan, you are also wrong about none of the "big three" being debt free.... <BR> <BR> <BR> <BR> <BR> <BR>(Message edited by 07launch22ssv on March 15, 2009)

formfunction 03-15-2009 9:38 PM

Back to the original post,I don't think any of them will fail.I think things will smooth out later this year and 2010 will be profitable.If one was to fail I would guess it would be the largest.Kinda the same as my shop and a big dealer.I can take my small savings and run in the red for some time but the big guy has massive overhead and small profit margins.Contracts with suppliers and payroll is nothing to make light of.

michaelspsp 03-16-2009 5:52 AM

either way, those numbers put things into perspective

driverlost 03-16-2009 6:19 AM

Andrew <BR> <BR>Alan's post indicates that all of the big 3 are carrying debt. <BR> <BR>ON another note, I went to the Chantilly Boat show this past weekend and it was fairly obvious that things are tough out there. It was noticeable how little the organizers put into the show. Some manufacturers weren't even there and the number of boats on display were way down. <BR> <BR>There are some great deals out there, but it makes me wonder what a "great deal" is. Boat prices might simply be coming back to where they should be. I think the wakeboat sector enjoyed a micro bubble in the boating industry from 2000-2008.

alans 03-16-2009 6:49 AM

Big three is, MC, CC, and Malibu. <BR> <BR>Skier's choice is up there in volume. If they are debt free, I would absolutely be blown away. When I say debt free, I mean cash operation, no major loans. While I have positive "net worth" I still could not survive without a mortgage and a car loan.

07launch22ssv 03-16-2009 10:06 AM

if your big three are mc, malibu, and cc than you are correct that they all carry debt.....however in terms of sales and production that is not the big three.......

bulletlines 03-16-2009 10:17 AM

I think a smaller company has a better chance if they are positioned right (own most of their equipment and warehouse). Bigger companies can usually lose faster because they more heavily leveraged. <BR> <BR>Ken Land <BR>Bullet Lines / Krypt Towers. <BR><a href="http://www.bulletlines.com" target="_blank">www.bulletlines.com</a>

alans 03-16-2009 10:37 AM

Yep, that is all I was trying to say.

greatdane 03-16-2009 10:51 AM

The bigger they are the harder they fall (unless the government hands them our money) -- exhibit ABC: GM, AIG &amp; COPES/UWS.

gti2lo 03-16-2009 7:21 PM

I have to say the boat show in Toronto wasn't too bad, mainly because out financial situation isn't nearly as bad as some areas of the united states... but in all honestly... more people talk doom and gloom the more it is going to happen. <BR> <BR>we need to stop posting this )hit and enjoy. <BR> <BR> <BR> <BR>BTW if you can't get financing for a boat now you should of never had one in the first place... aka you credit to debit ratio is high or you credit score needs a little TLC... banks just not being stupid with their money anymore.

michaelspsp 03-17-2009 5:52 AM

i agree and have posted this too. the negativity does not do anyone any good.

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